Gold returned +23% in 2024 and +26% in the first half of 2025 alone. Over the same period from 2020 to 2026, gold returned +182% compared to the S&P 500's +139%. CPF OA paid 2.5%. Singapore fixed deposits paid 2 to 3%. No asset class performed better than gold over those six years. This article compares gold against every major alternative for Singapore investors using real data so you can decide where it fits in your portfolio.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Gold returned +23% in 2024 and +26% in H1 2025. From 2020 to 2026, gold outperformed the S&P 500 (+182% vs +139%).
- 2.Over the very long term (50+ years), stocks outperform gold. Gold wins during crises, inflationary decades, and periods of USD weakness.
- 3.Singapore fixed deposits pay 2 to 3% per year. Gold has beaten FDs in 4 of the last 5 years by a wide margin.
- 4.CPF OA pays 2.5% guaranteed. Gold has no guarantee but has dramatically outperformed CPF rates in recent years.
- 5.Physical gold in Singapore is exempt from GST if it is at least 99.5% purity (Investment Precious Metals under IRAS rules).
- 6.Gold vs property: gold returned +182% from 2020 to 2026. Singapore private residential property rose approximately 40 to 50% over the same period, before ABSD, stamp duty, renovation, and mortgage interest costs.
- 7.Most financial planners suggest 5 to 15% of a portfolio in gold as a hedge, not as your primary investment.
The Numbers at a Glance
Before diving into each comparison, here is the raw performance data across major asset classes for Singapore investors. All returns are approximate and based on publicly available index data.
| Asset | 2024 Return | H1 2025 Return | 2020–2026 Total Return | Long-Term CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (USD) | +23% | +26% | +182% | ~6% (since 1978) |
| S&P 500 (USD, price only) | +23% | ~+12% | +139% | ~9.6% (since 1978) |
| S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested) | +25% | ~+13% | ~+160% | ~11-12% (since 1978) |
| Singapore STI ETF (SGD) | ~+13% | ~+9% | ~+40% | ~4-6% (with dividends) |
| Singapore FD (12-month SGD) | ~2.5–3.5% | ~2.0–3.0% | ~13–18% | ~1.5% (2010–2026 avg) |
| CPF Ordinary Account | 2.5% | 2.5% | ~15% | 2.5% (guaranteed floor) |
| SG Private Residential Property | ~+3% | ~+2% | ~+40–50% | ~4-5% (before costs) |
Note: Past performance does not predict future returns. Gold returns are in USD. SGD-adjusted gold returns are slightly lower when SGD strengthens. CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate.
Gold vs Stocks
The honest answer: stocks win over the very long run. But gold wins during the periods that hurt investors the most.
Over 50 years, the S&P 500 has compounded at roughly 11 to 12% per year including dividends. Gold has compounded at roughly 6% per year. If you hold for 30 years, stocks build significantly more wealth. That is the textbook answer.
But markets do not deliver smooth 11% per year. They deliver crashes. And this is where gold earns its place.
The 2000s lost decade: From 2000 to 2009, the S&P 500 fell 33% in total. Gold rose 246% over the same period. An investor who held 20% in gold and 80% in the S&P 500 still made money. An investor who was 100% in the S&P 500 lost a third of their wealth and needed 14 years to recover.
The 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Gold rose 25% while the S&P 500 fell 52.6%. In a crisis where everything was sold, gold was bought. This counter-cyclical behaviour is gold's most valuable property.
2020 to 2026: This was gold's strongest sustained run in decades. Starting from the COVID shock, gold returned +182%. The S&P 500 returned +139%. Gold outperformed the world's most dominant equity index over six years.
The lesson is not that gold is better than stocks. The lesson is that gold is different from stocks in a specific and useful way: it rises when stocks fall hardest. For a Singaporean investor who holds a CPF account, Singapore REITs, or STI exposure, adding gold reduces the pain of a downturn without dramatically reducing long-term returns.
Gold vs Currency and Inflation
Gold is priced in US dollars globally. When the dollar weakens, gold rises. When inflation erodes purchasing power, gold holds its value over long periods.
For Singapore investors, the SGD has been a strong currency. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) actively manages the SGD through an exchange rate policy, keeping Singapore's import costs in check. This means Singaporeans see less currency erosion than investors in countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, or Turkey.
In SGD terms, gold returns are roughly equivalent to USD returns when the SGD/USD rate is stable. In years when the USD strengthens (as it did in 2022), SGD-adjusted gold returns are slightly lower than USD-adjusted returns.
For Malaysian investors, the picture is more dramatic. The Malaysian ringgit has weakened significantly against the USD over the past decade. Malaysians holding gold in MYR terms have earned even higher returns than the USD headline figures suggest, because every USD gain in gold price is amplified by MYR depreciation.
According to World Gold Council research, every 1% rise in the Consumer Price Index is associated with approximately a 0.5% rise in gold prices on average. Gold's inflation protection is stronger over multi-year periods than month-to-month. During Singapore's 2022 inflation peak of 6 to 7%, gold initially underperformed as interest rates rose rapidly and the USD strengthened. But as rates turned and the rate cycle reversed from late 2024, gold surged to a series of all-time highs, validating its long-term inflation-hedge role.
Gold vs Fixed Deposit and CPF
This is the comparison most relevant to Singaporean savers who use CPF and FDs as their baseline.
Singapore fixed deposits: 12-month SGD FD rates from DBS, OCBC, and UOB currently sit at approximately 2.0 to 3.0% per year, and are falling as the global rate cycle turns. At a 2.5% rate, S$10,000 becomes S$10,250 in one year with zero risk. Capital is guaranteed.
CPF Ordinary Account: 2.5% per year, guaranteed by the Singapore government. CPF Special, Medisave, and Retirement Accounts earn 4.0% per year. CPF is the risk-free benchmark for most Singapore savers.
Gold: S$10,000 in gold at the start of 2024 would have become approximately S$12,300 by year-end (+23%). The same S$10,000 at the start of 2025's first half would have grown to approximately S$12,600 (+26%) by June 2025.
The comparison is not fair in one important way: FDs and CPF are risk-free. Gold has no capital guarantee. It can fall 20 to 30% in a bad year (as it did in 2022). An investor who needs the money in 12 months should not be in gold.
But for money you do not need for 5 to 10 years, the comparison shifts dramatically. Over any 10-year rolling period since 1978, gold has outperformed Singapore fixed deposit rates in the majority of decades. The compounding effect of 6% per year versus 2.5% per year is substantial over 20 years.
| S$10,000 invested | CPF OA (2.5%/yr) | FD (2.5%/yr) | Gold (6% avg CAGR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| After 5 years | S$11,314 | S$11,314 | S$13,382 |
| After 10 years | S$12,801 | S$12,801 | S$17,908 |
| After 20 years | S$16,386 | S$16,386 | S$32,071 |
Illustrative only. Gold's 6% CAGR is a long-run historical average. Actual returns vary significantly year to year. FD and CPF returns are guaranteed. Gold returns are not.
The bottom line: gold is not a substitute for your CPF or emergency fund. It is an addition to your portfolio for money you can leave untouched for a decade or more.
Gold vs Property in Singapore
Property is the default investment for most Singaporeans. Here is how the numbers actually compare.
Singapore's Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Private Residential Property Price Index rose approximately 80% in nominal terms from 2009 to 2024. That sounds impressive. But the net return depends heavily on how you acquired it.
Second property buyers face significant headwinds:
- Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD): 20% for Singapore citizens buying a second residential property, 30% for PRs, 60% for foreigners. On a S$1M property, that is S$200,000 paid upfront in ABSD alone.
- Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD): 3 to 4% on purchase price.
- Agent commission: 1 to 2% on the sale side.
- Renovation: S$30,000 to S$100,000 for a resale unit.
- Property tax, maintenance, insurance.
- Mortgage interest: on a 2.5% mortgage, S$500,000 borrowed over 25 years costs approximately S$167,000 in interest.
After these costs, a property that rose 50% in nominal price over 5 years may have delivered a much lower real net return than the headline suggests.
Gold's cost structure: To buy and hold physical gold, you pay the buy-sell spread (approximately 6 to 9% at Public Gold, 1 to 3% at BullionStar for large amounts). No stamp duty, no ABSD, no renovation, no property tax. Minimum capital starts from RM 100/month through Public Gold's Gold Accumulation Program.
From 2020 to 2026, gold returned +182%. Singapore private residential property rose approximately 40 to 50% over the same six years, before costs. A S$500,000 property bought in 2020 may have become worth S$700,000 to S$750,000 by 2026. A S$500,000 investment in gold would have become approximately S$1.41M over the same period.
Property has one advantage gold does not: leverage. A mortgage allows you to control a S$1M asset with S$200,000 down. If property rises 20%, your S$200,000 equity doubles. Gold cannot be leveraged in the same way without taking on risk through derivatives.
For investors who cannot afford a second property or who want to avoid the ABSD entirely, gold offers comparable or better returns over recent years with a fraction of the capital requirement and none of the transaction friction.
Gold vs Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin returned approximately +150% in 2024. Gold returned +23%. Crypto bulls will note Bitcoin's superior returns in bull years.
The comparison breaks down in three ways:
First, gold's long-term track record spans thousands of years across every civilization and currency system. Bitcoin has a 15-year track record with multiple 70 to 80% drawdowns. In 2022, Bitcoin fell approximately 65% while gold fell 1.5%.
Second, for Muslim investors, most Islamic scholars classify cryptocurrency as haram due to excessive speculation (gharar), lack of intrinsic value, and its use in prohibited transactions. Physical gold is the Islamic asset of record for wealth preservation.
Third, gold has institutional backing that crypto lacks. Central banks hold 35,000+ tonnes of gold in reserves. No central bank holds Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Cryptocurrency is a speculative position, not a hedge. Gold is a hedge. They are not alternatives to each other.
Why Central Banks Are Loading Up on Gold
The most telling signal about gold's future is not retail investor behaviour. It is central bank behaviour.
Central banks globally purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold per year for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, according to World Gold Council data. That is the highest sustained pace of central bank gold buying since the 1960s.
The primary driver is de-dollarization. After Russia's US dollar reserves were frozen by Western governments in 2022, central banks in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe re-evaluated holding foreign currency as their primary reserve. Gold cannot be frozen by a foreign government. It holds value across currency regimes. It carries no counterparty risk.
China, India, Poland, Turkey, Qatar, and multiple other countries have significantly increased their gold reserves since 2022. Singapore's own Monetary Authority of Singapore holds approximately 127 tonnes of gold as part of its official reserves.
When the institutions that manage national wealth at the highest level are buying gold at record pace, it is worth understanding why.
How Much Gold Should You Hold?
Most financial planners and portfolio managers suggest 5 to 15% of a portfolio in gold. Here is how to think about the allocation:
- 5% gold: Minimal hedge. Reduces portfolio volatility during market crashes without significantly impacting long-term returns. Suitable for investors who are primarily growth-oriented.
- 10% gold: Moderate hedge. World Gold Council data suggests a 10% gold allocation would have meaningfully reduced portfolio drawdowns during the 2008 and 2020 crashes while maintaining strong overall returns over 20 years.
- 15 to 20% gold: Significant hedge. Appropriate for investors with large equity exposure who want meaningful protection during crashes, or for investors in countries with currency risk (MYR, IDR).
Gold should not be your only investment. It produces no dividends, no rental income, and no interest. It is a store of value and a portfolio stabiliser, not a wealth-building engine in isolation.
How to Buy Physical Gold in Singapore
Singapore investors have several options for buying physical gold. Physical gold bars at 99.5% purity or above qualify as Investment Precious Metals (IPM) under IRAS rules and are exempt from Singapore GST.
- Public Gold (Malaysia, open to Singaporeans): Shariah-certified. Gold Accumulation Program (GAP) from RM 100/month. Dealer network across Malaysia. I am a registered Public Gold dealer based in Singapore. Full guide to buying through Public Gold →
- BullionStar Singapore: Physical delivery or vault storage. Multiple denominations. Singapore-based. Smaller buy-sell spread for larger amounts.
- UOB Gold: Bars available at UOB branches in Singapore. Premium pricing but convenient for existing UOB customers.
For bank gold savings accounts (DBS, OCBC, UOB paper gold): these track the gold price but do not give you physical metal. They do not qualify for GST exemption and carry counterparty risk to the bank. They are a convenient tracker but not the same as owning physical gold. See the full comparison in the physical gold vs ETF vs bank gold guide.
Past performance does not predict future returns. Gold prices can fall. This article is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance of any asset class does not guarantee future returns. Gold prices can rise and fall. Please consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.